Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Jul 25 2024 23:00:23

AWUS01 KWNH 252300
FFGMPD
VAZ000-NCZ000-SCZ000-260258-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0728
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
659 PM EDT Thu Jul 25 2024

Areas affected...eastern North Carolina

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 252258Z - 260258Z

Summary...Flash flood potential will exist for another 2-3 hours
(through 02-03Z) on an isolated basis.

Discussion...Over the past couple hours, deep convection has
congealed into an extensive band extending from near Elizabeth
City southwestward to near Fayetteville.  The storms continue in
an abundantly moist environment (characterized by 2-2.4 inch PW
values), and downstream instability (1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE) should
continue to support robust updrafts that merge with this evolving
complex over the next 2-3 hours.  Storms are progressively moving
toward areas of less susceptibility to excessive runoff as
evidenced by higher FFG thresholds (generally in the 2-4 inch/hr
range).  Nevertheless, the orientation of the band (parallel to
deep southwesterly flow aloft) and abundantly moist airmass
continues to support spots of 2-3 inch/hr rain rates that could
overwhelm sensitive/urban spots across the discussion area for the
next 2-3 hours.

After 03Z, storms are expected to reach the North Carolina
coastline and eventually open waters of the Gulf Stream.  As this
occurs, the flash flood risk with this activity will decrease,
with heavy rainfall potential lessening significantly over land.

Cook

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!9heUglddLyvTL5XULYtYOnbNnsu0bGAyl5Y6v805AnwzO_ACLyfilkIUNn5wv8F7J2Ur=
_QVcqmibm3OwChZi7SNQkyg$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...ILM...MHX...RAH...

ATTN...RFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   36597568 35777489 34307703 33727825 34227900=20
            34817950 35327862 36297705=20

=3D =3D =3D
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