Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Jul 25 2024 18:25:49

AWUS01 KWNH 251825
FFGMPD
GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-260024-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0727
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
225 PM EDT Thu Jul 25 2024

Areas affected...northern/central Alabama, northwestern Georgia

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 251824Z - 260024Z

Summary...An outflow/differential heating zone across Alabama
could aid in focusing heavier rainfall along an axis from north of
Columbus, MS through Birmingham, AL to near Carrollton, GA.  A few
instances of flash flooding are possible along this axis through
00Z.

Discussion...Scattered shower/thunderstorm development has
persisted across northern Alabama (along and just north of I-20)
for much of the morning.  South of this axis, abundant sunshine
has encouraged development of a distinct differential heating
zone.  Recent radar/satellite has indicated an uptick of
convection along this differential heating zone over the past
hour.  Additionally, objective analyses indicate present of a weak
mid-level shortwave trough over Mississippi approaching the
discussion area from the west.  Enhanced low-level flow at 850mb
(around 20 knots) was also impinging on the western end of this
differential heating zone, with speed convergence also noted
across western Alabama.  The aforementioned mesoscale features
appear to be contributing to a focus of thunderstorm activity
along an axis from north of Columbus, MS through Birmingham Metro
eastward to near/just north of Carrollton, GA that should persist
for the next couple hours.  The focus for thunderstorm activity
along with slow eastward storm motions could enable for a few
spots of 1.5 inch/hr rain rates that approach/threaten FFG
thresholds across the area.  A few instances of flash flooding
appear possible in the next 2-3 hours given the aforementioned
scenario.

Beyond 21Z, the potential of focused convective development is a
bit unclear and will depend on the extent of convective
development north of the differential heating boundary and any
subsequent northward or southward shifts in the location of the
boundary.  It is plausible that locations currently experiencing
the heavy rainfall could still be experiencing rainfall in the
21-00Z timeframe.  At least a couple instance of flash flooding
are possible in this regime.

Cook

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!7HFlZwiuYwwbr8Oqu-AdBMr3S7gd63G0n7UTGu19y_M7qSwBNdnCJL95kHKO7ZgAPLBm=
CtxxIjMATKbBpnXpZ8MGw8o$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...FFC...HUN...JAN...MEG...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   34478748 34438522 33968423 33328424 32978496=20
            32908661 33358849 34268851=20

=3D =3D =3D
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