Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Thu Jul 25 2024 17:01:46 AWUS01 KWNH 251701 FFGMPD VAZ000-NCZ000-SCZ000-252300- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0725 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 101 PM EDT Thu Jul 25 2024 Areas affected...Central/Eastern NC...Far Southeast VA Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely Valid 251700Z - 252300Z SUMMARY...Heavy showers and thunderstorms will be increasing in coverage going through the late afternoon and early evening hours. High rainfall rates and some localized training of convective cells will likely promote some areas of flash flooding. DISCUSSION...The midday GOES-E visible satellite imagery is showing filtered sunshine across much of central and eastern NC which has been allowing for boundary layer destabilization to occur. MLCAPE values of locally over 1500 J/kg are already focused across especially eastern NC, and the latest radar imagery shows a band of heavy showers and thunderstorms tending to increase in coverage from central NC east-northeastward into far southeast VA along the leading edge of a weak surface trough. Additional expansion of convection is expected with the diurnal heating cycle over the next several hours, and areas of central and eastern NC in particular are likely to see heavy rainfall with some of the stronger convective cells producing rainfall rates of 2.0" to 2.5"/hour given the deeply tropical airmass that is in place in conjunction with the increasing boundary layer instability. Some locally enhanced surface moisture convergence, especially over northeast NC, is expected to help concentrate these areas of convection over the next few hours. The 12Z HREF guidance supports some localized storm totals amounts by early this evening of 3 to 5 inches, with the greater probabilities of seeing this situated across north-central to northeast NC, and to some extent farther south over eastern NC inland of the coast where some seabreeze convergence may help to provide an additional focus for some slower-moving convection this afternoon. These high rainfall rates and storm total potential should generally favor areas of flash flooding, and especially with rather moist antecedent conditions in place. Some of the urbanized areas such as around the Raleigh-Durham area and up toward Elizabeth City may see some enhanced runoff concerns as these heavier showers and thunderstorms cross the region. Orrison ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!7aJjAoAVffSuVoe5vjilZHDvJdBUCmVWxRGL7bVnQTUwLdn0hd76R21Kj08jRIRuGRbJ= Yte1a49MPW2tZJ4106bm-0w$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...GSP...ILM...MHX...RAH...RNK... ATTN...RFC...MARFC...SERFC...NWC... LAT...LON 36747634 36497581 35807565 35067640 34147784=20 33847859 34087928 34877906 35408043 36028057=20 36367960 36457760=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .