Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Jul 25 2024 02:57:07

AWUS01 KWNH 250257
FFGMPD
VAZ000-NCZ000-SCZ000-250830-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0722
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1056 PM EDT Wed Jul 24 2024

Areas affected...Western & Northern NC...Ext Southeast VA...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 250255Z - 250830Z

SUMMARY...Increasing convection along outflow boundary aligning
favorably for some potential short-term training and spots of
2.5-3.5" totals over saturated soils pose possible flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E 10.3um EIR shows a decaying convective cluster
over S VA that was driven by a subtle southern stream shortwave
that has started to exit the Chesapeake Bay region resulting in a
flattening mid-level confluence axis once again across the Middle
Appalachians into VA/NC.  Regional RADAR and 02z observations
denoted an outflow boundary pressing south across far northeast
NC; reinforcing the deformation zone across the area of concern.=20
Oblique warm air advection of 20-25kts of remaining pool of
unstable air with MLCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg extending back into
western NC is utilizing this boundary/steepening from the outflow
to break out new convection from Guilford to Northhampton county
in NC connecting up with convection that had developed by
approaching DPVA from next shortwave leaving the Southern
Appalachians... from Henderson to Davie county. Though western
cells are a bit shallower due to slightly low available
instability, cells are likely to further expand through the line
over the next few hours.=20

Given the narrow, skinny saturated profiles and 2.25"+ total
PWats, updrafts will become increasingly capable of 2-2.5"/hr
rates with the updrafts; though weaker inflow may inhibit some
efficiency; local pressure falls/isallobaric response may aid
others.   Deep layer steering is likely to be the greater
contributing factor, as orientation of the line is expected to
remain fairly parallel to 15-20kt cell motion vectors.  As such, a
hour or two of repeating may result in spots of 3-4" totals in
1-3hours.  Given entire area over the last 7-10 days has seen
200-400% of normal and soil saturation above 70% through 0-40cm,
spots of flash flooding are considered possible through the early
overnight period.=20

Gallina

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!5vt9bNlm3r0E7W_2mS1TiJX0MehZx55VmvFPu6bNfL0-gjlNzjJSrubOhBQSiQmwgUDc=
eJu6sS9MlcchDOVQfOaYpU8$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...GSP...MHX...RAH...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...MARFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   37027696 36817598 36157582 35847621 35657755=20
            35517865 35228040 35138143 35348232 35818212=20
            36238116 36777923=20

=3D =3D =3D
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