Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Jul 25 2024 02:11:07

AWUS01 KWNH 250211
FFGMPD
AZZ000-250610-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0721
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1010 PM EDT Wed Jul 24 2024

Areas affected...portions of southern AZ

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 250210Z - 250610Z

Summary...Localized hourly totals of 1-2" (with 15-min totals up
to 0.75") may continue for several more hours. Isolated flash
flooding is possible.

Discussion...Scattered thunderstorms have propagated to the
southwest off the Mogollon Rim late this afternoon, and this
activity may persist for a few more hours into the evening. These
storms are moving into a mesoscale environment characterized by ML
CAPE of 1000-3000 J/kg, precipitable water values of 1.2-1.8"
(near the max moving average, per TUS sounding climatology), and
effective bulk shear near 20 kts. The convection propagating into
greater instability and moisture may allow for localized 1-2" hour
totals to continue (with as much as 0.75" in 15-min), but
increasing convective inhibition (wth the loss of daytime heating)
and lessening shear will act to suppress and diminish the coverage
and intensity. In the meantime, localized instances of flash
flooding will be possible (affecting normally dry washes and
urbanized terrain most significantly).

Churchill

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!413nCP-JRFU09Ht9hQRfm8BYcoc8DsVOdOhwM-TJ4pTnDa5KTF6VStWuTtpqt5XDLmCE=
x9er7kofdpY0CqkBcQACm7w$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGZ...PSR...TWC...

ATTN...RFC...CBRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   34251216 33641085 32590969 31391063 31451223=20
            32371383 33951368=20

=3D =3D =3D
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