Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Thu Jul 25 2024 00:38:55 ACUS01 KWNS 250038 SWODY1 SPC AC 250037 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0737 PM CDT Wed Jul 24 2024 Valid 250100Z - 251200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA... ....SUMMARY... Widely scattered strong thunderstorms may still pose a risk for damaging wind gusts this evening across parts of the Southwest, the northern Intermountain region into northern Rockies, and a small portion of the Mid Atlantic. ....01z Update... ....Arizona... Orographic forcing has supported and maintained scattered thunderstorm development near the Mogollon Rim, which is slowly attempting to propagate away from the higher terrain, aided by weak northerly mid-level flow. Although boundary-layer moisture to the immediate south of the higher terrain is seasonably modest, and supportive of only generally weak instability, the hot and deeply mixed sub-cloud layer is conducive to gusty outflows, which could still spread into the somewhat more moist lower deserts and support increasing thunderstorm development this evening. ....Northern Intermountain region/Rockies... Downstream of an inland progressing short wave trough, 40-50 kt west-southwesterly flow in the 500-300 mb layer will continue to enhance storm motions and the potential for widely scattered strong to severe gusts in the more vigorous convective development overspreading the region through mid/late evening. ....Southeastern Virginia... Heavy precipitation loading, in an environment with seasonably high precipitable water in excess of 2 inches and moderately large CAPE, may continue to support a risk for potentially damaging wind gusts in isolated strong thunderstorm development overspreading the region, aided by downward mixing of west-southwesterly deep-layer mean flow on the order of 30+ kt. ...Kerr.. 07/25/2024 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .