Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1699
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Jul 24 2024 17:30:52

ACUS11 KWNS 241730
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 241730=20
NYZ000-PAZ000-241900-

Mesoscale Discussion 1699
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1230 PM CDT Wed Jul 24 2024

Areas affected...Western New York and far northern Pennsylvania

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 241730Z - 241900Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon
with a primary threat of damaging wind gusts.

DISCUSSION...Scattered thunderstorms will continue to mature across
western New York and northern Pennsylvania this afternoon. Continued
heating and low-level moisture advection will increase instability
this afternoon, peaking around 1500 to 2000 J/kg MLCAPE. The BUF VWP
shows around 30 knots of effective shear which will support some
updraft organization. Damaging wind gusts will be the primary threat
with isolated large hail possible.

A severe thunderstorm watch does not appear imminent, but if several
stronger updrafts can congeal and mature, a small severe
thunderstorm watch may be needed this afternoon/early evening.

...Bentley/Thompson.. 07/24/2024

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!612xYk4HhZIxclABGkwbo7tmXkIP9nQ2uiEjg67OB-Qdv6JPLKZefgXb1yLzp4OpnqrvMb6Sf=
3IPR0evB6tuE_ZtSkQ$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...CLE...

LAT...LON   42047682 41927726 41637878 41957996 42128019 42407954
            42767891 43097905 43497844 43417721 43467639 43057626
            42357657 42047682=20


=3D =3D =3D
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