Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Jul 23 2024 23:44:18

AWUS01 KWNH 232344
FFGMPD
MDZ000-VAZ000-NCZ000-SCZ000-TNZ000-240442-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0712
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
743 PM EDT Tue Jul 23 2024

Areas affected...much of Virginia, western through central North
Carolina

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 232342Z - 240442Z

Summary...Isolated flash flood potential continues through the
early overnight hours.

Discussion...Scattered to numerous thunderstorm activity has moved
through the discussion area, producing 1-3 inch rainfall totals in
several areas over the past 6 hours or so.  These storms were (and
continue to be) embedded in deep southwesterly flow, with local
areas of training continuing to result in 1-1.5 inch/hr rain rates
in a few spots.  Widespread convective overturning has resulted in
low-level stabilization across central North Carolina and eastern
Virginia, although 2-2.2 inch PW values remain and will continue
to support efficient rain rates beneath the heavier, locally
training thunderstorm cores.

The overall (and already isolated) flash flood threat should begin
to wane through the early overnight hours.  Prior convective
overturning has stabilized much of the region, and additional
stabilization should occur in tandem with nocturnal low-level
cooling and continued thunderstorm development within pockets of
lingering buoyancy.  It is worth noting that 3000 J/kg MLCAPE
remains  across eastern North Carolina, which could sustain
convection in that area on its trek toward southeastern Virginia
and vicinity through 02Z.

Cook

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!6nbdNTmZhyw_3e2cOXZVjJ-zFH6sNo1xxDn39LhYdGMMlcbjJqws2YxmRCMmGEulxU-1=
q2TzSMLJ2dynyEDzJo-LMK0$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...CAE...GSP...ILM...LWX...MHX...MRX...RAH...
RNK...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...MARFC...OHRFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   38507709 37987604 36617590 35907628 35147721=20
            34577859 35068098 35508312 36418163 37577984=20
            38427801=20

=3D =3D =3D
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