Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Jul 23 2024 23:08:48

AWUS01 KWNH 232308
FFGMPD
LAZ000-TXZ000-240507-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0711
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
708 PM EDT Tue Jul 23 2024

Areas affected...portions of southeast Texas and western Louisiana

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 232307Z - 240507Z

Summary...Slow-moving convection persists within a very
moist/unstable environment primed for heavy rainfall.  Continued
1-3 inch/hr local rain rates should continue to pose a flash flood
risk through at least 03Z.

Discussion...Deep convection continues to focus along a low-level
confluence zone extending from near Victoria to north of Houston
to Alexandria, LA.  Abundant moisture and sufficient instability
exists on both sides of this zone, with 2-2.4 inch PW values
supporting efficient rainfall rates within the convection.=20
Additionally, only modest propagation of this axis was observed,
with areas of 1-3 inch/hr rain rates occurring due to slow storm
motions.  2-3 inch/hr FFG thresholds were also being exceeded on a
localized basis as well.

The overall scenario is expected to continue for the next few
hours despite a loss of insolation after 00Z.  Widespread
convective overturning has occurred north of the confluence zone,
partially contributing to only a slow southward movement of this
convective band over the next 3-6 hours.  Showers/storms from the
Gulf of Mexico (south of the confluence) will slowly drift
northward toward the confluence zone, also contributing to flash
flood potential through the evening.  At least a few instances of
flash flooding are likely in this regime.  Persistence of
convection beyond sunset is also probable given the moist/unstable
airmass in place and only slow boundary layer cooling south of the
confluence zone after dark.

Cook

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!8rP5mQXviyIYAuuKHyzypdVXNDNZiJUV7MtM-vLGXLkoyo--e2DO7YwiLljkjE9ggKYw=
1EkDflq6OcDIsnZVNHSV0uk$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...HGX...LCH...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   31929270 31399236 30709253 30269333 29659404=20
            27759717 27709808 28659837 29599802 30929593=20
            31869380=20

=3D =3D =3D
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