Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook Corr 1
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Jul 23 2024 17:42:51

ACUS01 KWNS 231742
SWODY1
SPC AC 231741

Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1241 PM CDT Tue Jul 23 2024

Valid 231630Z - 241200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF
NORTH CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA...IOWA INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS...AND
WESTERN ARIZONA AND MOJAVE DESERT...

CORRECTED FOR THUNDERSTORM BOUND PLACEMENT OVER THE NORTHEAST

....SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms are possible across parts of the Mid-Atlantic
states, portions of the Midwest, and parts of the Desert Southwest.

....Mid-Atlantic/Carolinas/Southeast States...
Visible-satellite imagery shows a building cumulus field over the
region amidst a very moist airmass located over the Carolina coastal
plain (mid to upper 70s deg F surface dewpoints).  Strong heating
will contribute to moderate destabilization by early afternoon.  A
belt of moderate west-southwesterly mid-level flow may aid in some
multicellular storm organization in the form of a few clusters.
Water-loaded downdrafts capable of an isolated risk for wet
microbursts (peak gusts 50-60 mph) appear to be the primary severe
hazard.

....IA into northern IL...
Thunderstorms are expected to redevelop along the northern front
from southern Wisconsin across Iowa and southern Minnesota this
afternoon, perhaps aided by a weak MCV from morning storms.  Models
show the development of moderate buoyancy with deep-layer shear
around 25 kt.  A few of the stronger storms may be capable of an
isolated risk for strong to locally severe gusts (50-60 mph) and
marginally severe hail.  This activity will likely diminish by early
to mid evening.

....Western AZ into the Mojave Desert...
Thunderstorms are expected to develop over the Mogollon Rim of
Arizona again this afternoon, with relatively weak northeast
mid-level flow steering storms southwest into the lower elevations.
Widely scattered storms are forecast to develop late this afternoon
into the evening.  The inverted-v thermodynamic profiles will
potentially support an isolated risk for severe gusts (60-70 mph)
with the stronger evaporatively cooled downdrafts.

...Smith.. 07/23/2024

$$

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