Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Tue Jul 23 2024 17:32:21 ACUS02 KWNS 231732 SWODY2 SPC AC 231730 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Tue Jul 23 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF LOWER GREAT LAKES...EASTERN OREGON INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...SOUTHEAST ARIZONA AND SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO... ....SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may produce damaging gusts across parts of northern Ohio and Pennsylvania into New York Wednesday afternoon and evening. Widely scattered to scattered storms capable of severe windsare expected in parts of the Northwest, northern Rockies, and Southwest. ....Synopsis... The upper-level ridge is expected to shift eastward out of the Great Basin and more towards the Four Corners on Wednesday. A strong upper trough will push into the Northwest and northern Rockies. Across the Great Lakes into the Northeast, another upper-level trough will shift eastward. Moderate mid-level winds will be present from the Lower Great Lakes into the Northeast/northern Mid-Atlantic. Northwest flow aloft will be maintained across the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest. At the surface, a stationary boundary will extend from a southeastern Ontario/southern Quebec surface low into the Ohio Valley and westward into the central Plains and northern High Plains. Another cold front will push through the Northwest. ....Northwest/northern Rockies... Strong mid-level winds will overspread the Northwest into Idaho and western Montana. Mid-level moisture will push into the region as the upper-level ridge moves east. Mid-level ascent coupled with the cold front and terrain will promote widely scattered to scattered storms across the region. Low-level moisture will likely be greatest in eastern Oregon and with generally lesser values into Montana. Strong heating will, despite limited moisture, will support 500 to perhaps 1000 J/kg MLCAPE. Very dry sub-cloud layers will lead to strong evaporative cooling. Severe gusts are possible with storms during the afternoon and evening. The greatest coverage of storms is most probable in eastern Oregon into western Idaho. Storm coverage and the potential for clustering/upscale growth would support greater wind probabilities, but uncertainty remains with respect to the degree of destabilization/buoyancy. This will be re-evaluated in subsequent outlooks. ....Arizona/New Mexico... Strong heating with dewpoints in the mid/upper 50s F will support MLCAPE values of 1000-1500 J/kg (perhaps locally higher). As the upper-level ridge shifts east, a belt of stronger northeasterly mid-level winds will develop in the vicinity of the Arizona/New Mexico border. 0-6 km shear of 25-30 kts will allow storms to organize as they develop along the Mogollon Rim. With time, cold pool amalgamation will help storms push into the lower deserts as at least a semi-organized band of convection. Severe winds will be possible with this activity. The environment is certainly supportive of potentially higher wind probabilities should confidence increase in the location of the most organized convection. ....Lower Great Lakes Vicinity... Convection is expected to develop along the cold front as well as any lake breeze boundaries that develop. 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE is forecast by the afternoon. Wind shear will be initially weak but will increase by late afternoon. A few multicell clusters and marginal supercells are possible. The strongest discrete storms could produce marginally severe hail, but the main hazard will be isolated damaging winds. ....Northwest/central Iowa... Stronger northwesterly flow will be present over much of Iowa. However, the strongest wind shear may remain to the cool side of the stationary boundary. Given how weak low/mid-level forcing will be, storm development is not certain. The environment will support a conditional threat of large hail should storms develop. ...Wendt.. 07/23/2024 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .