Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Tue Jul 23 2024 05:59:46 ACUS01 KWNS 230559 SWODY1 SPC AC 230558 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Tue Jul 23 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ....SUMMARY... The risk for organized severe thunderstorms appears low on Tuesday. ....Synopsis... The large-scale upper-level pattern will change little on Tuesday, with a pronounced anticyclone over much of the West, and a trough from the Great Lakes northeast into eastern Canada. A weak surface front will extend from near the Delmarva Peninsula southwest into central TX, and serve as a focus for more concentrated showers and thunderstorms. Farther north, another weak/slow-moving front will extend from the Great Lakes into the Dakotas. Although no severe probabilities are introduced with this outlook, some localized severe potential is possible, and highlighted below. ....Mid-Atlantic/southeast... The air mass over much of the southeast and mid-Atlantic states near and south of the front Tuesday will remain very moist with PW values in excess of 2 inches, contributing to moderate MLCAPE by afternoon. Although a modest increase in mid-level flow is forecast from the southern Appalachians northeast across the mid-Atlantic, low-level flow will remain weak. Additionally, the lack of a well-defined impulse embedded within the mid-level flow suggests that any severe risk, likely in the form of strong/damaging gusts, should remain localized in nature. ....Midwest... Thunderstorms are expected to redevelop along the northern front from southern WI across IA and southern MN Tuesday afternoon, with the potential for multiple rounds of storms in some locations. Moderate buoyancy should be in place near the front, however deep-layer shear should generally remain at or below 25 kts for much of the day. Some risk for hail and gusty winds will exist with any stronger storm, but overall confidence in introducing a severe risk area remains low. ....Arizona/Lower Colorado River Valley... Thunderstorms are expected to develop over the Mogollon Rim of Arizona again Tuesday, with relatively weak northeast mid-level flow steering storms southwest into the lower elevations. Despite very hot temperatures and a deep/well-mixed boundary layer, overall confidence that storms will cluster and produce more than localized strong/damaging gusts is too low to introduce a severe risk area. ...Bunting/Lyons.. 07/23/2024 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .