Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Jul 23 2024 01:22:32

AWUS01 KWNH 230122
FFGMPD
NCZ000-SCZ000-230600-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0701
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
922 PM EDT Mon Jul 22 2024

Areas affected...NC/SC Coastal Plains...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 230120Z - 230600Z

SUMMARY...A few more hours of slow/stationary clusters of
efficient rainfall with rates of 2-3"/hr and localized spots of
add'l 4+" will continue localized flash flooding threat.=20

DISCUSSION...As MPD 696 expires in a few minutes, the set-up for
intense heavy rainfall continues with the ongoing clusters and
potentially some upstream Tcu noted in 3.9um SWIR.  Currently,
-65C topped clusters exist near Pitt/Beaufort county, NC;
Sampson/Duplin county, NC and Florence/Sumter counties, SC; with
the TCu across Lexington/Richmond counties, SC.   Clusters remain
along the confluence axis between Gulf and Atlantic streams and
deep layer q-axis with 2.25-2.5" of TPW.  Additionally, 500-1000
thickness pattern continues to support zero to slightly upwind
propagation vectors as inflow winds slacken from 15 to 10 kts at
the boundary layer.  Instability has begun to increase along the
coast with temps still in the low 80s and Tds in the upper 70s
supporting 2000-2500 J/kg for any updrafts that can maintain in
the weakening flow.  RADAR rates of 2-3" have been observed and
confirmed with backyard observations south of Florence and near
Pitt county with 5-6" and 4-5", respectively.  While sandy soils
can absorb much of this in the coastal Plain, MRMS Flash still
indicate pockets of 200-400 cfs/sq.mi, generally indicative of at
least low end flash flooding.=20

Hi-res CAMs are suggestive that convergence weakens at or just
after 05z, but those generally have a quick bias to weaken.  As
such, additional 3-5" is possible which may result in some of
those locations to near 6-8"+ further increasing flash flooding
likelihood.

Gallina

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!9R56PbPCuTt2I1zWHZyWdz14nQ2x5kZBnUC4TrEL8xGDxxgHZlvPX1qqGzo4z49uNWF-=
3Ctez2JjTr1O8Ao96DY9o3o$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...CAE...ILM...MHX...RAH...

ATTN...RFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   36447657 36417610 35747631 34617814 33877948=20
            33378094 33708123 34098092 34817957 35157891=20
            36007730=20

=3D =3D =3D
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