Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Jul 22 2024 23:13:32

AWUS01 KWNH 222313
FFGMPD
NYZ000-PAZ000-MDZ000-WVZ000-230300-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0699
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
713 PM EDT Mon Jul 22 2024

Areas affected...South-central Upstate NY...Central PA...Far
Northwest MD...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 222310Z - 230300Z

SUMMARY...A few more hours of stronger thunderstorms in proximity
to the shortwave/surface low and downstream frontal zone where
instability remains.  Additional 1.5-2.5" totals and an isolated
incident of flash flood may still be possible.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E WV suite depicts shortwave over southeast LP
of MI continues to slide eastward with effective trough extending
toward a triple point with wave lifting north out of the southern
stream across the Allegheny Plateau of W PA. Dense high cirrus
continues to show strong divergence over central PA into S NY in
the right entrance to 90-100kt 3H jet over Interior New England.=20
Strong low to mid-level cyclogenesis continues to provide strong
dynamical moisture flux convergence along and near the surface
wave near DSV to UNV, with strong directional convergence and
moisture in the upper 60s-low 70s wrt Tds.  However, active
convection has nearly exhausted instability with excpetion of
southward along the cold front into north-central MD, and northern
VA.  This 500-1000 J/kg of CAPE remaining should maintain stronger
cells that are moving well along/ahead of the cold front.  Rates
of 1.5-2"/hr remain possible with those cells given deep moisture
up to 2" of TPW, but will diminish with diurnal heating loss.=20
Nearer the center, remaining weak convective cells are going to be
driven by weak (250-500 J/kg) of instability and strong dynamic
ascent/convergence.  moisture flux on 15-20kts especially
along/near the E-W stationary front where isentropic ascent can be
maximized in Central NY may still support spots of 1-1.5"/hr rates
and with some repeating up to 2" rainfall totals.  Flash flooding
may give way to more nuisance, longer term flooding and urban
issues through dusk/early overnight periods, but this is also near
areas of the lowest FFG, so an isolated spot or two may see
possible low-end flash flooding through 03z.=20

Gallina

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!_2XQH20ZJCqdQwWm_CrSckzR9_EgJValDvc-DjlZKjaWfBew_i4YocdKE0adWGDYw9s5=
Gk5TFmSAYEjU2cOR69EdfDA$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ALY...BGM...CTP...LWX...

ATTN...RFC...MARFC...NERFC...OHRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   43127489 42787397 42067404 41717509 41127586=20
            40657645 39977655 39417707 39477799 39877836=20
            40817839 41447810 42057769 42617718 42987626=20
=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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