Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Jul 22 2024 19:30:37

AWUS01 KWNH 221930
FFGMPD
VAZ000-NCZ000-SCZ000-230130-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0696
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
329 PM EDT Mon Jul 22 2024

Areas affected...Southeast VA...Central NC...Central to
North-central SC...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 221930Z - 230130Z

SUMMARY...Highly efficient thunderstorms in deep moisture axis
capable of 2-2.5"/hr rates have potential to merge into a line of
training cells across Coastal Plains.  Spots of 2-4" and flash
flooding is possible this evening.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E Visible imagery denotes convective development
occurring across portions of the Coastal Plains in a few clusters,
including cells along the outflow from initial sea-breeze
development.  Once again the core of the deep moisture axis
resides through coastal NC into SE VA with 2.25-2.4" total PWats
in an overlap/confluence of the tail end of return Gulf moisture
plume as well as an Atlantic sourced plume off the Sargasso Sea
off the GA/SC coast.  This axis, per usual, is displaced slightly
east of the main instability axis that has formed from the eastern
Piedmont to about I-95; with solid heating into the mid to upper
80s (further south), adjustments result in an axis of 2000-3000
J/kg  MLCAPE.  Convective lines are propagating toward each other
into the instability axis, so increasing convective converge is
expected over the next few hours.=20

The moisture and flux should support 2-2.5"/hr, but storm scale
interaction (outflow collisions) may even induce short-term rates
to 3"+.  Deep layer steering is fairly parallel to the
moisture/instability and confluence axis to promote potential for
SSW to NNE training.  Propagation vectors are likely too weak
given the 500-1000 thickness pattern to help deviate the training
axis too much.  As such, spots of 3-5" are likely to induce flash
flooding though the evening, including Norfolk and SE VA urban
centers and S NC (Chesterfield to Johnston Counties), that have
seen recently heavy rainfall and saturated soil conditions.

Gallina

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!8WCdVE20L1ce8XSRoqfvLvwA8gC-Gz4BsEjqiF8mIQGqfiaqdwMT6yNI2S1u79PjJjbw=
0Cn0ZY1jvZePM0eoUrlZJ7I$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...CAE...GSP...ILM...MHX...RAH...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...MARFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   37937618 37487554 36847579 36337642 34867827=20
            33807960 33518082 34228136 35538064 36667952=20
            37497836 37907707=20

=3D =3D =3D
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