Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Jul 22 2024 17:55:28

AWUS01 KWNH 221755
FFGMPD
LAZ000-TXZ000-222353-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0693
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
154 PM EDT Mon Jul 22 2024

Areas affected...much of southern, central, and eastern Texas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 221753Z - 222353Z

Summary...Widespread/numerous cell mergers are expected to produce
brief heavy rain rates sufficient for flash flood potential
through 00Z this evening.

Discussion...With the onset of surface heating/destabilization,
scattered to numerous shower and thunderstorm activity has
materialized across the discussion area especially along and south
of a surface boundary extending from near Shreveport westward to
near Dryden (Terrell County), TX.  Parts of this boundary have
been augmented by convective activity that has grown upscale into
small linear segments across west-central Texas.  Additionally,
deep convection has materialize across most of the Texas Coast
within a weak warm-advection regime.  Each of the storms are
supported by mid to upper 70s F dewpoints and insolation, allowing
for 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE to develop amid 1.9-2.2 inch PW values.=20
Weak steering flow aloft has allowed for slow and at times erratic
cell movement, with loose organization along a couple outflow
boundaries in west Texas and along the aforementioned front in
central/east Texas.  1-2.5 inch/hr rain rates have also been noted
per MRMS this morning.

The ongoing scenario should continue through the early evening,
with widespread thunderstorm development continuing.  Multiple
cell mergers are expected to prolong rain rates and contribute to
spots of 2-3 inch hourly amounts at times.  These rates are likely
to cause excessive runoff in some areas - especially where FFG
thresholds are less than 3 inches/hr and in urban areas.=20=20
Scattered thunderstorm activity is expected to persist until
eventually most of the surface-based buoyancy is diminished due to
convective overturning and loss of insolation.  This process will
take several hours to unfold, however, and may not completely
unfold until after 00Z.

Cook

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!7YWxLp97i_ggvretUD5aXU7pTijZfmn2jMzu0EtqRXqHd-HgzmO72wCIEkY3XB6HCQlk=
k444PYM_i3lH1WeIFMJE51A$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...FWD...HGX...LCH...SHV...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   32399498 32029391 30999355 30069385 29309493=20
            28609688 28369949 28750056 29500113 30460117=20
            31110020 32019738=20

=3D =3D =3D
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