Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Jul 22 2024 14:20:28

AWUS01 KWNH 221419
FFGMPD
TXZ000-221830-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0691
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1019 AM EDT Mon Jul 22 2024

Areas affected...west-central/southwest Texas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 221418Z - 221830Z

Summary...Slow-moving convection has exhibited a modest increase
in organization and poses an isolated flash flood risk through
1830Z.

Discussion...Scattered thunderstorms continue to persist along an
axis extending from Junction to Fort Stockton.  This axis happens
to be collocated with a weak front/surface convergence zone, with
1.75-2 inch PW values and 1000-1500 J/kg SBCAPE supporting
efficient rainfall rates with the activity.  Observed rates of 1
inch/hr have been noted, and recent estimates of near 2 inches/hr
(per MRMS) are located near/southwest of Junction.  With FFG
thresholds in the 1-2 inch/hr range across most of the discussion
area, flash flood potential appears to be on an uptick in the
short term.

Over the course of the morning, slow, erratic movement of storms
is expected due to weak wind fields/steering flow aloft.=20
Cells/linear segments will ultimately propagate very slowly
southeastward through 1830Z, with spotty heavy rain rates
continuing.  A modest increase in heavy rainfall coverage is
possible, especially given 1) weak mid-level shortwave troughs
across west Texas providing ascent and 2) insolation, which should
result in strengthening updrafts and increasing buoyancy over
time.  Flash flood potential is expected to increase through 1830Z
in this regime.  The scenario will be re-evaluated at around that
time for subsequent MPDs that will probably be needed as the flash
flood threat evolves.

Cook

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!4MHxjaUiw4vyllw5BQ-TgfUuU82IBHU0QQlHg0s7OThDWRkUf_dm1NG84Pk7JpvhAt6I=
8AdSashcJeu7DhohwOuwzC8$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...MAF...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   31479898 31289761 30259754 29740001 30290288=20
            31110306 31460226 31310029=20

=3D =3D =3D
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