Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Mon Jul 22 2024 06:01:37 ACUS01 KWNS 220601 SWODY1 SPC AC 220559 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Mon Jul 22 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC...AND WESTERN ARIZONA... ....SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible over portions of the mid-Atlantic region, and western Arizona on Monday. ....Synopsis... A broad upper-level trough will remain in place from the Great Lakes southwest into northern Texas on Monday, while an embedded impulse within the flow around the trough moves across the mid-Atlantic states. Another impulse will move southeast across the upper Midwest and northern Great Lakes, while an upper-level anticyclone remains anchored in the vicinity of the southern Great Basin. ....Mid-Atlantic... A very moist air mass will be remain in place across the region, characterized by PW values in excess of 2 inches. As the embedded mid-level impulse lifts northeast across the TN Valley and mid-Atlantic region during the day, lower/mid-level wind fields will strengthen and result in 30-40 kts of deep-layer shear by afternoon. Despite poor lapse rates, 70s dew points will contribute to pockets of moderate buoyancy. Thunderstorms should redevelop during the afternoon, aided by ascent with the approaching impulse. NAM/RAP forecast soundings Monday afternoon suggest notable low-level hodograph curvature, suggesting some potential for a tornado or two across northeast NC and eastern VA, especially with any cells that remain relatively discrete. ....Western AZ Vicinity... Thunderstorms are expected to develop across the Mogollon Rim Monday afternoon, with hi-res guidance depicting the greatest coverage across western AZ. Northeast mid-level flow of 15-20 kts should be sufficient for storms to move into lower elevations characterized by a hot/well-mixed boundary layer. Merging outflows should result in clusters of storms with the potential for strong to severe gusts. ....Upper Midwest... Thunderstorms should re-develop along a southward-moving cold front, reinforced by convective outflows, across central/northern MN and northwest WI during the day, with the potential for gusty winds and perhaps small hail. Overall thunderstorm intensity should be tempered by relatively weak shear, precluding severe probabilities with this outlook. ...Bunting/Lyons.. 07/22/2024 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .