Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Jul 21 2024 18:46:28

AWUS01 KWNH 211846
FFGMPD
TXZ000-OKZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-AZZ000-220045-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0680
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
243 PM EDT Sun Jul 21 2024

Areas affected...portions of the Southern Rockies into the
Southwest

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 211845Z - 220045Z

Summary...Greater coverage and intensity of monsoonal convection
expected today, resulting in localized 1-3" totals (mainly focused
in higher terrain, but also spreading to lower elevations).
Scattered flash flooding is likely (with some significant flooding
possible, particularly over sensitive burn scars in NM).

Discussion...Another active day of monsoonal convection is
anticipated across much of the Southern Rockies and into the
Southwest, initially impacting higher terrain and spreading into
lower elevations in the deserts (with the deep layer mean wind and
upwind propagation vectors generally steering storms to the SE-S,
as the deep layer mean ridge is situated just to the
west/northwest). While convection is taking a bit longer to get
going today due to lingering convective inhibition from leftover
cloud debris from overnight, this is quickly changing as lingering
stratus from this morning has eroded and convection is firing
strongly along the Mogollon Mountains/Rim (from south-central AZ
to southwest NM). The mesoscale environment is generally
characterized by SB CAPE of 750-1500 J/kg (and locally higher
farther south, mainly off the terrain), precipitable water values
of 0.8-1.2 inches (near the 90th percentile to max moving average,
per ABQ/TUS sounding climatology), and effective bulk shear as
high as 20-25 kts. The elevated shear in particular (relative to
yesterday) is a bit concerning, given that should improve storm
organization and longevity.

Given the details of the above environment, hi-res guidance (the
12z HREF) indicates both higher coverage and intensity of storms
today (per increases in the HREF EAS, ensemble agreement scale,
guidance and 40-km neighborhood probabilities for 2" exceedance,
respectively). The skillful 2" exceedance guidance, in particular,
indicates relatively high coverage (mainly focused near high
terrain) of 30-40% odds (and as high as 40-70% over northeast NM).
Given the observational and model trends, scattered instances of
flash flooding are considered likely (with particular concern for
the more sensitive burn scars in NM, where significant to extreme
flash flood impacts are possible).

Churchill

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!8GphBvVzm70YZZC6mUUxqfszW1_ivnlU1tft658GlC_bLa-XFey2lMKG2TGUvdXULeQK=
G7wC35BckU551VH-pabbNJg$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...EPZ...FGZ...GJT...LUB...MAF...PSR...
PUB...TWC...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...CBRFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   38180585 38060427 37540313 36180288 35080292=20
            34340305 33550313 32850339 32230370 31960439=20
            31990610 31600696 31520778 31270827 31310921=20
            31281095 32081098 32961122 33691214 34581309=20
            35421329 35981302 35591191 34941107 34621068=20
            34290998 34260849 34990727 36330701 37500654=20
=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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