Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sun Jul 21 2024 05:25:57 ACUS01 KWNS 210525 SWODY1 SPC AC 210524 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 AM CDT Sun Jul 21 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST... ....SUMMARY... Isolated, marginally severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon into early evening across parts of central and southern Arizona, and from southern Colorado to northeast New Mexico. ....Southwest... Scattered to widespread thunderstorms are expected this afternoon through sunset within a generally modest north-northwesterly mid/upper flow regime between an anticyclone over the western Great Basin and a low-amplitude trough in the central states. The most likely corridors for thunderstorm development will be across the southern Rockies and the Mogollon Rim. For the CO/NM portion, more favorable wind profiles will exist here, but buoyancy will largely remain weak owing to below-normal surface temperatures. Convection will probably struggle to greatly intensify, but a few updrafts may acquire transient supercell structure and be capable of marginally severe hail during the afternoon. Storms should largely consolidate into multicell clusters moving south-southeastward, with mainly a strong-gust threat over southeast CO and northeast NM that subsides closer to sunset. For the AZ portion, deep-layer shear will remain weak, but a more northerly orientation to the mid/upper flow should foster convection over the Rim spreading south into the lower deserts. Buoyancy south of the Rim should be moderate, with MLCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg amid hot temperatures and low to mid 60s surface dew points. Loose multicell clustering may occur as outflows spread south-southwestward. While small to marginally severe hail is possible along the Rim, strong to isolated severe gusts will be the main hazard before convection weakens after sunset. ...Grams/Lyons.. 07/21/2024 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .