Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Jul 21 2024 01:00:28

ACUS01 KWNS 210100
SWODY1
SPC AC 210058

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0758 PM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024

Valid 210100Z - 211200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND EASTERN NC...

....SUMMARY...
Isolated, marginally severe storms remain possible this evening over
a portion of the south-central High Plains and eastern North
Carolina.

....Eastern CO vicinity...
A string of broken cells are moving southward across northeast to
east-central CO within 30-35 kt mid-level north-northwesterlies per
regional VWP data. The lack of observed sounding data ahead of this
activity renders uncertainty over potential intensification, but
based on marginal MRMS MESH values, it is plausible that this
activity may produce marginally severe hail and locally strong gusts
for a few more hours, before weakening near the Raton Mesa/Sangre de
Cristo Mountains later this evening.

....Eastern NC...
Convection has increased somewhat into the coastal plain with
measured gusts to around 50 mph over the past hour. While lapse
rates are weak, a belt of unidirectional west-southwesterly low to
mid-level flow, characterized by 30 kts at 700-mb per the 00Z MHX
sounding, could support locally strong gusts capable of tree damage
as convection spreads towards the Outer Banks tonight.

....Elsewhere...
Convection near the I-40 corridor in west-central OK should slowly
sink southward this evening with about 15 kts of low-level southerly
inflow. The 00Z OUN sounding is supportive of small to marginally
severe hail along with a localized strong gust or two.

Slow-moving cells with prominent outflows will persist across the
southeast AZ area for a few more hours. 00Z TUS sounding sampled
very weak shear, so an organized severe wind threat is not expected.
But any pulse cell will be capable of a localized strong gust.

...Grams.. 07/21/2024

$$

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