Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Jul 21 2024 00:59:48

AWUS01 KWNH 210059
FFGMPD
NCZ000-SCZ000-210630-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0675
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
859 PM EDT Sat Jul 20 2024

Areas affected...Southern and Eastern NC...North-central SC...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 210100Z - 210630Z

SUMMARY...Spotty totals of 2-4" due to repeating, effcient, though
fast moving convection may result in a spot or two of low-end
flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...Large scale broad southwesterly trough will remain
fairly persistent has embedded southern stream shortwaves/impulses
slide through the mid-level trough in proximity to the stationary
front.  Right entance ascent will also support modest outflow and
provide divergence for these embedded pulses to develop new bouts
of convection through the early to mid overnight period.

Currently, a strong cluster (cooling below -65C) has developed
along convergent outflow boundaries just east of I-95 between
Rocky Mount and Goldsboro; deep layer steering remains 25-30kts
for cell motions, but ample pool of unstable and very moist low
level environment (warm cloud up to 14Kft) is supportive of strong
moisture flux convergence and rainfall rates of 2-2.5"/hr.  Totals
have been limited to about that range, though cell
mergers/expansion of the cluster moving into the sandier soils of
the coastal Plain may not be as favorable as normal given recent
300-400% of normal rainfall across the area.  Further west, the
slack between two shearing shortwaves has flattened the deep layer
flow, but the frontal boundary/surface convergence axis is
oriented favorably parallel to the steering flow while low level
inflow is orthogonal enough to maintain sufficient convergence
near the Charlotte Metro area.  As such, rates of 2"/hr and one to
two hours of training suggest spots of 2-4" may be possible.

Slow southward drift of the boundary/surface convergence axis may
help to mitigate some locations from higher totals and likely to
result in a more spotty areal coverage of those higher totals
across E NC and adjacent portions of SC.  As such, possible
incident or two of flash flooding is possible through the
overnight period particularly if intersecting with
urban/hydrophobic ground conditions that cannot withstand the
highly efficient rates.

Gallina

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!6zf173YTkJ6MSDtA9BO0DcFQBwCAU1Y8ndyEuAWYxttrKFAxnBelnSUkteDbvG7kDKbU=
P1KOBtXYrpVEXpZUY5bE3F4$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...CAE...GSP...ILM...MHX...RAH...

ATTN...RFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   36237634 36037565 35327534 34407645 34187914=20
            34378057 34678144 35338153 35547995 35647949=20
            36107796=20

=3D =3D =3D
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