Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sat Jul 20 2024 23:45:45 AWUS01 KWNH 202345 FFGMPD TXZ000-NMZ000-AZZ000-210545- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0674 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 745 PM EDT Sat Jul 20 2024 Areas affected...Eastern & Southeastern AZ...Central to Southwestern NM... Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely Valid 202345Z - 210545Z SUMMARY...Multiple bands of monsoon activity rounding the southeast edge of the large scale ridge will continue to pose scattered localized flash flooding risk.=20 DISCUSSION...The large scale ridge continues to elongate NNW to SSE centered in the Lower Colorado Valley, while a stronger (50-60kt) upper-level jet passes to the northeast providing diffluent flow along the anticyclonic rotor across much of SE AZ into S NM through the late evening into the overnight period.=20 This should maintain organized clusters by providing sufficient outflow. Ongoing clusters/linear features can be seen in RADAR mosaic and GOES-E Visible across the Eastern Mogollon Rim into SW NM, as well as, further north across north-central NM, remaining in the core of deeper level moisture. CIRA LPW shows the core of mid-level moisture along the AZ/NW NM border starting to encroach on the diffluent flow, while surface to 850mb continues to turn eastward upslope out of the Sonoran Desert toward SE AZ; weaker return flow across the West Texas Panhandle has slowly increased total PWATs to 1-1.25" across the Rio Grande Valley and into the Sacramento Range to further feed/maintain moisture flux for cells/line moving in from the north.=20 While there are pockets of overturned/stabilizing air between the lines, enhanced SBCAPEs exist (especially across the upslope area out of the Sonoran Desert from Gila to Pima/Santa Cruz) to feed forward propagation into the upslope flow. With deeper moisture, rates may reach higher instantaneous rates but duration may limit totals to 1-2" resulting localized flash flooding concerns.=20 Further west into SW and south-central NM...instability will be a bit less than further west, but should be sufficient (1000+ J/kg) to provide stronger updrafts to support similar 1-1.5" totals.=20 Incidents of flash flooding are going to be likely, but should be scattered and highly localized in areal coverage per incident/downdraft.=20=20 High res CAMs have been bullish on some upscale enhancement of the clusters coming out of Santa Fe county and tracking toward the Sacramento Range and the highly sensitive burn scars that had already seen considerable flooding this evening, Salt Fork, Blue 2, etc. An additional 1-1.5" is possible though 06z. Tracking through these scars precisely is difficult to confirm this far out in time; however, there remains a solid potential (25-30% per HREF) between 03-06z after sunset when flood waters are that much more dangerous. Gallina ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6nDt1T_0zwlevqiJV9PEOsNwgUfyKHVt1hfrYhi8-Xw48BTnLJ9H9sZYsX3Fv3aaSPYC= 2XrFbZURfHYKpYwyKuSr3RA$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...FGZ...PSR...TWC... ATTN...RFC...CBRFC...WGRFC...NWC... LAT...LON 35710707 35660619 35380538 34870474 34000464=20 33320478 32700504 32500549 32650595 33020625=20 32750652 31860653 31510752 31280832 31311089=20 31541211 31851252 32421229 32751169 33331140=20 34241195 34591172 34501056 35021046 35300959=20 34970837 35400749=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .