Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sat Jul 20 2024 19:57:26 ACUS01 KWNS 201957 SWODY1 SPC AC 201955 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 PM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024 Valid 202000Z - 211200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE SOUTHEAST AND THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ....SUMMARY... Strong to isolated severe thunderstorms are possible over parts of the Southeast and central to southern High Plains, mainly from mid-afternoon to evening. ....20Z Update... Minimal changes were made to the outlook with this update, as the previous forecast remains on track. Scattered multicell thunderstorms (with occasional/transient supercell structures) will continue spreading east-northeastward across the Southeast this afternoon. Given a hot/moist boundary layer and around 2 inch PW extending from northeast FL northward into southeast VA, sporadic damaging winds (generally 50-60 mph) will be possible. Farther west, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will gradually increase in coverage across the central and southern High Plains this afternoon, with isolated large hail and severe gusts possible with the strongest storms. Reference forthcoming MCD 1687 for additional details. Over portions southern AZ, temperatures have climbed into the 100-105 F range amid upper 50s/lower 60s dewpoints. While weak midlevel flow will limit storm longevity/organization, occasional strong to locally severe gusts cannot be ruled out this afternoon. ...Weinman/Smith.. 07/20/2024 ..PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1113 AM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024/ ....Southeast... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a mid-level shortwave trough moving slowly east across KY/TN/AL towards the southern Appalachians. A mid-level anticyclone located over the Gulf Stream to the east of the Southeast U.S. will move little during the period. Late morning surface analysis indicates a very moist airmass resides over the coastal plains of GA/Carolinas with mid 70s deg F dewpoints. Ample heating via mostly sunny skies (per visible satellite data) east of a line from Macon, GA to Columbia, SC, and to the Research Triangle, will result in a moderately unstable boundary layer by early to mid afternoon. Forecast soundings show PW around 2 to 2.25 inches and moderate effective shear (20-30 kt). Scattered thunderstorms will likely develop in several clusters as convective temperatures are breached by early afternoon. Given the buoyant/high PW environment, water-loaded downdrafts will accompany the stronger thunderstorm cores. Isolated wet microbursts capable of 45-60 mph gusts will potentially result in isolated to widely scattered wind damage this afternoon and early evening. ....Central and southern High Plains... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon along the Front Range/Sangre de Cristo corridor from southeastern WY to NM, as well as over the Raton Mesa, near the lee trough, and along leftover outflow/differential-heating boundaries from prior overnight/morning convection. Isolated severe gusts and hail are possible with the stronger storms before this activity diminishes by mid to late evening. $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .