Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Jul 20 2024 17:38:13

AWUS01 KWNH 201738
FFGMPD
COZ000-NMZ000-AZZ000-210000-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0670
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
137 PM EDT Sat Jul 20 2024

Areas affected...much of NM...southeast AZ...far south-central CO

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 201800Z - 210000Z

Summary...Widely scattered instances of flash flooding are
possible with localized rainfall rates up to 1-2"/hr.

Discussion...Convective inhibition across the Southern Rockies and
into the Desert Southwest has eroded, as cumulus congestus has
become apparent (via GOES-East visible imagery) over the higher
elevations (in the vicinity of particularly sensitive, recent burn
scars) and echos already appearing on local radar. The environment
is generally characterized by SB CAPE of 500-1000 J/kg and
precipitable water values of 0.7-1.0 inches (near the daily
mean/75th percentile, per ABQ sounding climatology), though
southeast AZ is characterized by slightly higher instability and
moisture (though still near comparable climatological levels, per
TUS sounding climatology).

The expectation for convective intensity and coverage is similar
to yesterday (and perhaps a bit higher), as hi-res guidance
indicates localized rainfall rates of up to 1-2"/hr. Coverage of
any flash flooding impacts should be widely scattered (at best),
given the lack of shear and organizing force for convection (i.e.
typical pulse storm mode). Weak low-level flow rounding the ridge
to the west will generally drive storms to the southeast to
southwest, at relatively slow motions of 10-20 kts. One of the
most skillful indicators for flash flood impacts across the
Southwest are 2" exceedance values via the HREF 40-km neighborhood
method, which are indicated to be as high as 20-40% (and are
generally clustered around the terrain, in the vicinity of the
burn scars, and farther southwest into southeast AZ where the
greatest coverage of convection may materialize). As a result,
widely scattered instances of flash flooding are considered
possible (with potentially high-end impacts limited to the most
sensitive burn scar localities).

Churchill

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!_jxG3bKo6rMcD6vRDuHsVx6do5qLAzKwiTMdwebFAfss6Sm4fOJ3w00HGHGeuL4n_xka=
i8C5TTM4pvsA5xYT-iQH0IA$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...FGZ...GJT...PSR...PUB...TWC...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...CBRFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   38670628 38630567 38480513 38010461 37410423=20
            36840387 36040358 35490384 34480471 32720492=20
            32370553 32700742 32600780 32180834 31660875=20
            31290938 31311123 31641223 32201224 32721168=20
            33191126 33701068 34071030 34490956 34230855=20
            34690788 35670752 37220735 38020717=20

=3D =3D =3D
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