Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Jul 20 2024 00:56:16

ACUS01 KWNS 200056
SWODY1
SPC AC 200054

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0754 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024

Valid 200100Z - 201200Z

....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS...

....SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered severe gusts and isolated severe hail will
remain possible this evening across parts of the central Great
Plains.

....Central Great Plains...
Numerous cells and clusters are ongoing from western SD to the TX
Panhandle within a belt of moderate mid-level northwesterlies
between an anticyclone over the western Great Basin and a minor
mid-level trough over MN. The plume of moderate buoyancy centered on
parts of central NE to far northeast CO (and sampled by the 00Z LBF
sounding) should become increasingly squeezed by outflows pushing
south in western NE and weak southerly low-level flow advecting
previously overturned air north from northwest KS. As such, the
overall severe threat will likely be greatest over the next couple
hours before diminishing as convection spreads southward from the
Black Hills and central High Plains region. See MCD 1685 for
additional short-term information.

Farther south, storms have struggled to greatly intensify over
southeast CO and southwest KS. But the 00Z DDC sounding sampled
around 1500 J/kg and 35-kt effective bulk shear. This activity will
have potential to produce sporadic severe wind and hail through late
evening, before further waning amid nocturnally increasing MLCIN.

...Grams.. 07/20/2024

$$

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