Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sat Jul 20 2024 00:34:30 AWUS01 KWNH 200034 FFGMPD TXZ000-OKZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-200500- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0667 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 833 PM EDT Fri Jul 19 2024 Areas affected...Northeast NM...Far Southeast CO...Adj OK/TX Panhandles... Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 200030Z - 200500Z SUMMARY...Initially terrain locked/slow moving cells should move off terrain and potentially grow into a cluster with increased moisture flux and enhanced rainfall rates. Scattered flash flooding may be possible given 1-1.25"/hr, especially near terrain/steep terrain. DISCUSSION...Strong northern stream jet streaking down the front range of the Colorado Rockies into increasingly diffluent flow across the eastern side of retrograding ridge over the Southwest is providing increased DPVA across SE CO into NE NM. VWP depict stronger down-sloping winds intersecting with southerly return flow out of the southern High Plains resulting in a convergent 850-700mb low in NE NM with enhanced convergence. Moisture has slowly increased to the low to mid 50s in NM though slightly higher nearing 60F off TX/OK panhandles at slightly lower elevation. Total PWats have pooled with 1-1.25" values in the vicinity of the low. Deep layer flow supports back-building, upslope components for the next few hours across the southern Sangre de Cristo and Nacimiento Ranges; with GOES-E visible showing numerous overshooting tops breaking through the lower status. With return moisture/higher theta-E air returning to NE NM, instability is increasing as well supporting values of 1500-2000 J/kg allowing for stronger updrafts over the coming hours and maintaining moisture flux. As the shortwave/jet streak overtops the region, forward propagation should increase across the NM High Plains limiting duration. Hourly totals will be within range of the hourly FFG values of 1-1.5" so a few incidents of flash flooding may still occur. Hi-Res CAMs have been very poor in assimilating the forward speed of the approaching jet streak/shortwave features; generally 1-2 hours too slow. Accounting for this and a generally more favorable upper-level diffluence pattern, and RADAR/satellite trends, as shift westward toward the terrain for higher totals may be more likely but will continue to monitor convective trends for the OK/TX Panhandles for any further eastward expansion of potential flash flooding risk, but as expected in such a poor short-term diagnosis, confidence is reduced. Gallina ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4B_BNlxf9j1wLfvXO_Xza0Ty4T1Fymm3tfpBEv_xP8WESFBjyzaoe9aL-baWzS5u0Ucz= a8fUY11AUf88YF20PohGr_A$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...LUB...PUB... ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...WGRFC...NWC... LAT...LON 37710340 37170252 36130240 34580284 33940381=20 33920518 34350617 34840644 35470631 35930579=20 36740488 37360453=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .