Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1685
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Jul 20 2024 00:27:16

ACUS11 KWNS 200027
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 200026=20
NEZ000-COZ000-200130-

Mesoscale Discussion 1685
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0726 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024

Areas affected...Portions of southwest Nebraska and extreme
northeast Colorado

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 555...557...

Valid 200026Z - 200130Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 555, 557
continues.

SUMMARY...The most favorable corridor for a continued risk for
severe hail and wind appears to be over parts of southwest Nebraska
and extreme northeast Colorado through at least 02Z.

DISCUSSION...The greatest severe risk appears to be focused across
portions of southwest Nebraska and perhaps extreme northeast
Colorado through around 02Z. Here, temperatures in the lower 90s
amid upper 50s/lower 60s dewpoints (lower with westward extent) are
still yielding moderate surface-based instability -- given steep
midlevel lapse rates (see LBF 00Z sounding). Additionally, regional
VWP shows around 40-50 kt of deep-layer shear (with modest low-level
hodograph curvature), which will favor a continuation of
semi-discrete supercells, capable of producing hail around 2 inches
in diameter and gusts upwards of 75 mph.

...Weinman.. 07/20/2024

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!_0WhuYZvhvTm-zsWxsMt65vPBCbMDo1DRdsNVYEkNUBqDJZtCIGGcAeU3dofdrUOq-IHicvex=
Xn5-rkXzPEy2ktvStw$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...BOU...CYS...

LAT...LON   41000098 40770085 40410061 40140071 40100123 40350205
            40610252 41050299 41370315 41680321 41790298 41800268
            41590239 41450209 41420172 41390137 41230112 41000098=20


=3D =3D =3D
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