Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Jul 19 2024 19:44:59

AWUS01 KWNH 191944
FFGMPD
NMZ000-AZZ000-200100-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0664
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
344 PM EDT Fri Jul 19 2024

Areas affected...Much of New Mexico...Eastern and Southeastern
Arizona...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 191945Z - 200100Z

SUMMARY...Monsoonal thunderstorms generally at 90th percentile of
moisture and modestly unstable environment will pose slightly
above average coverage and intensity for a few to widely scattered
incidents of flash flooding this evening, particularly near fresh
burn scars.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E Visible imagery shows the incipient TCu with
occasionally successful CBs across the elevated terrain of New
Mexico into eastern and southeastern Arizona.  This includes a few
congestus and starting anvil clouds in proximity of the Bule 2,
South Fork and Salt burn scars in the Sacramento Range that have
been highly susceptible to even .5" rainfall totals to induce
flash flooding and that appears highly plausible again this
evening, though hitting specific watersheds/channels will come
down to storm scale interaction.  Similarly, cells in the southern
Sangre de Cristo Range are starting to blossom with potential of
crossing the Hermits Peak scar.

Overall, the eastern edge of the large scale upper-ridge has been
granted above average deep layer moisture along the periphery.
Total PWats of 1.5" along the AZ/Mexico border up to 1.25" into
the eastern Mogollon Rim/Gila, Black Range before further
shallowing out to .8-1" up across northern NM.  Overall, this is
about 85-90th percentile of moisture, but the 12z profiles do show
fairly moist mid-levels and the inverted-V low levels appear below
average in depth and dewpoint depressions.  Full sun, has built a
favorable 1500 J/kg instability axis across the area of concern.=20
It is not the most severe of values but given the ample moisture,
stronger widely scattered to scattered monsoonal thunderstorms
will develop and the inflow from those stronger updrafts will
support .5-1"/hr rates.  Spotty 1-2" totals are possible given
deep layer steering along the eastern edge of the ridge is very
weak at 5 kts.  As such, spotty widely scattered flash flooding
will be possible (though more likely at those aforementioned burn
scars, having much lower thresholds with hydrophobic, limited
infiltation).=20=20

Gallina

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!83ReWNpudG-j56BiIamqJ0A0pdOoIMgAJpGDPltKLNIa9O8fmjRhQBvj8QjE2ERu_4YZ=
Ai0Zbul9wFayzvy9MeIWzPw$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...FGZ...PSR...TWC...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...CBRFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   36980480 36740406 35970351 34680439 33040495=20
            32470516 32330543 32420578 33190614 33360676=20
            33000736 32530772 32300843 31690868 31330906=20
            31261011 31441090 32091104 32761041 33461014=20
            34031024 34130942 34740907 35540885 35450804=20
            35680714 36210700 36660703 36930614=20

=3D =3D =3D
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