Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Jul 19 2024 19:22:57

AWUS01 KWNH 191922
FFGMPD
SCZ000-FLZ000-GAZ000-200121-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0663
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
322 PM EDT Fri Jul 19 2024

Areas affected...Southern Georgia...Southwest South Carolina

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 191921Z - 200121Z

Summary...A band of intensifying convection continues to focus
along an outflow boundary in southern Georgia. As additional cells
form this afternoon, a combination of cell mergers and repeating
of 2-3"/hr rainfall rates could drive a flash flood threat this
afternoon.=20

Discussion...Radar and surface observations depict an axis of
intensifying convection filling in along a composite outflow
boundary across southern Georgia. Within the most intense cells,
dual-pol and MRMS estimates suggest rainfall rates of 2-2.5" are
being realized.

The 0 hour RAP forecast suggest this activity is likely being
enhanced by the entrance region of a 50-60 kt anticyclonically
curved jet streak in the TN Valley. Unsurprisingly, the region
also remains very moist and unstable to support efficient rainfall
rates of 2-3"/hr, with 3000 J/kg of MUCAPE and 2.3-2.4" PWATs
noted in the inflow region of the convection.

Going through the afternoon, the concern is for the low-level
boundary to interact with the enhanced synoptic forcing and
unstable inflow from the Gulf to support continued repeating of
cells. Additional development east of the main axis of storms
along an emerging sea breeze could further enhance the heavy rain
potential as cells could merge with one another. While morning CAM
guidance has not performed well with this activity, the HRRR has
initialized the storms better over the last several runs and
suggests rainfall totals locally of 3-5" are possible through 1z
tonight. In spite of generally dry antecedent conditions in the
area, these efficient storms could locally breach 1-3HR FFGs in
the 2.5-4" range.

Asherman

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!76ThM3GzgcLDPA_QdyATC4ehWFKfbe86HJeQPBsNNBQXI3QWJIkJqdPqah1WN7LhrSN-=
MrnF7pKS4eatnRCLFG0Ui7c$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CAE...CHS...FFC...ILM...JAX...TAE...

ATTN...RFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   33888092 33827947 33577910 33097926 32668008=20
            31348155 30448313 30758485 33008366 33718203=20
=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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