Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Fri Jul 19 2024 17:32:12 ACUS02 KWNS 191732 SWODY2 SPC AC 191730 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS INTO SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA...RATON MESA VICINITY... ....SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Mid-Atlantic and in the vicinity of the Raton Mes on Saturday. ....Synopsis... An amplified upper ridge will be present across the West into the High Plains region on Saturday. In the Midwest and East, rather broad upper troughing is expected. Flow aloft will be modest aside from some areas that will be influenced by MCVs. The surface pattern will be nebulous across much of the CONUS. A weak surface low is forecast within North Carolina into southern Virginia. A weak surface trough is also anticipated in the southern/central Plains. ....Parts of Carolinas into southeast Virginia... As the subtropical ridge intensifies in the Atlantic, some stronger mid-level flow is possible across parts of the Carolinas into the southern Mid-Atlantic. There is uncertainty as to how much destabilization will occur Saturday afternoon in part due to potential cloud cover from earlier convection/weak MCV moving in from the southeast. Furthermore, there is potential for early convective activity along the North Carolina/Virginia border near a weak surface low/boundary. Model guidance is consequently variable in the amount of storm coverage. Where storms do develop during the afternoon, effective shear around 30 kts will promote marginally organized convection capable of damaging winds. ....Raton Mesa Vicinity... Model guidance is in general agreement that a weak perturbation will rotate around the upper ridge and promote scattered convection from the Sangre de Cristos into the Raton Mesa. Modest low-level moisture is expected to bu shunted up against the terrain. Low/mid-level lapse rates will be steep and 0-6 km shear will be 30-40 kts. Temperature-dewpoint spreads may be near 30 F and lead to outflow dominant storms. Some CAMs suggest a clustering may occur in parts of southeast Colorado into northeast New Mexico. Though some uncertainty remains, potential for isolated severe gusts appears high enough to included 5% severe wind probabilities. ....Kansas/western Oklahoma... Some showers/convection are probable to be ongoing in association with one or more MCVs from central Oklahoma into northeast Kansas/southeast Nebraska. At present, an outflow boundary is possible within northeast/central Kansas into western Oklahoma. While this may provide some focus for storm development during the afternoon. However, given the position behind earlier MCV activity and stronger mid-level winds generally displaced westward, storm initiation and overall severity of storms that do develop is too uncertain for unconditional severe probabilities. ...Wendt.. 07/19/2024 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .