Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Fri Jul 19 2024 16:28:44 ACUS01 KWNS 191628 SWODY1 SPC AC 191626 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024 Valid 191630Z - 201200Z ....THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR WESTERN KANSAS INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND EXTREME EASTERN COLORADO... ....SUMMARY... Scattered to numerous severe gusts (60-75 mph) are possible this afternoon into tonight across portions of the central Great Plains. ....Central/southern Great Plains... Visible-satellite imagery late this morning shows several clusters of sub-severe thunderstorms over central/northern NE into SD ahead of a southeastward-migrating mid-level shortwave impulse. The disturbance is evident in water-vapor imagery and approaching the Black Hills vicinity. The mid- to upper-level anticyclone over the Great Basin/Desert Southwest will move little during the period, and aid in allowing the aforementioned disturbance to move southeastward into eastern NE/western IA later tonight. Morning surface analysis places a moist axis from western KS northward into west-central NE and SD with lower 60s deg F surface dewpoints. This adequately moist airmass will become moderately unstable by mid afternoon across southwest NE southward into extreme eastern CO and western KS (2000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE). It seems plausible a southward-moving cluster will emerge from the midday ongoing thunderstorm activity over central NE and move into a boundary layer featuring steep 0-3 km lapse rates. Veering flow with height will support 35-45 kt effective shear and promote storm organization. Large hail and severe gusts will be possible with the stronger storms over mainly parts of NE and SD. As additional storms develop, a coalescing into one or more clusters will likely evolve by late afternoon over the central Great Plains. Additionally, scattered storm development is expected near/east of the Front Range with coverage forecast to increase as storms move into a more moist environment over eastern CO. Upscale growth into one or more linear clusters is expected before an MCS evolves (perhaps from a merging of thunderstorm clusters) over western KS by this evening. Severe gusts will be the primary hazard later this afternoon through the late evening. As storms move farther southwest into central KS and parts of northwest OK/TX Panhandle later this evening, weaker instability and greater CINH will likely lead to a gradual decrease in storm intensity and severe risk. ...Smith/Squitieri.. 07/19/2024 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .