Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Fri Jul 19 2024 06:00:09 ACUS01 KWNS 190600 SWODY1 SPC AC 190558 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA...NORTHEAST COLORADO AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN KANSAS... ....SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with a risk for damaging winds and large hail, will be possible Friday from western and central South Dakota south into the northern Texas Panhandle. ....Synopsis... A notable shortwave trough located along the international border/north-central MT at 06z will move southeast across the northern/central Plains on Friday. An expansive upper-level anticyclone will remain in place over much of the southwestern U.S., while a positive-tilt upper trough over the Northeast lifts northward into the Canadian Maritime Provinces. ....Central U.S.... One or two small clusters of thunderstorms may be ongoing at 12z Friday in a weak warm-advection regime over the Dakotas. More intense development is expected, possibly by early/mid afternoon, in the vicinity of a surface trough across southwest South Dakota/northern Nebraska as ascent with the upper-level trough moves southeast. Additional thunderstorm development is also expected near a weak surface low and trough across northeast Colorado/southwest Nebraska during the late afternoon, with storms moving south/southeast across western Kansas during the evening. Dew points in the upper 50s/lower 60s, combined with daytime heating beneath steep mid-level lapse rates, should yield moderate to strong buoyancy by mid afternoon. Around 40 kts of northwest deep-layer shear will support organized storm structures that should merge into clusters and bowing segments with time across western/central Nebraska, western Kansas and eastern Colorado. Damaging winds should be the primary threat given the well-mixed boundary layer and eventual clustering/bowing of storms. Large hail will also be possible with the strongest updrafts, especially where supercell structures with mid-level rotation can develop. Some hi-res guidance suggests the potential for greater coverage of severe winds, including significant-severe wind potential, over portions of southern South Dakota and western/central Nebraska. Higher wind probabilities/introduction of a sig-severe wind area may be needed in later outlooks if confidence in this scenario increases. ...Bunting/Lyons.. 07/19/2024 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .