Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Jul 19 2024 00:25:14

AWUS01 KWNH 190025
FFGMPD
COZ000-NMZ000-190553-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0658
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
824 PM EDT Thu Jul 18 2024

Areas affected...portions of CO and NM

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 190023Z - 190553Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms are expected to fade as they
move to the south over the next several hours across CO and NM.=20
Until then, hourly rain totals up to 2" remain possible.

Discussion...Scattered showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain
remain across portions of CO and NM.  Precipitable water values in
the terrain are 0.8-1.2" per GPS data.  Effective bulk shear is
around 30 kts, allowing for some convective organization.  The
area remains under the eastern periphery of an upper high, as a
shortwave trough in the Plains moves farther afield through
eastern KS and OK, with the storms moving southward due to the
northerly flow aloft. SPC mesoanalyses indicate that CIN is
developing; convective coverage isn't quite as concentrated as it
was earlier this afternoon.  MU CAPE is in the 1000-2000 J/kg
range.

Likely due to increasing CIN, the guidance shows a slow fade to
convective coverage through 06z, generally from north to south.=20
Until thunderstorms significantly thin in coverage, hourly rain
totals to 2" remain possible where cells merge or attempt to train.

Roth

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!-ZVBq0K-os8YwpKQfEx7rWsHOxOHIZ-JZiQ-PLhWEigckgId_lI5H7SzIKo5ESFatgPq=
VvJmxzZmiH5c1f-d1fCccWk$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...BOU...EPZ...GJT...MAF...PUB...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...CBRFC...MBRFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   39770418 38470314 36520329 34370309 32700336=20
            32510409 33200595 35080801 37160895 38690762=20
=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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