Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Jul 18 2024 23:32:42

AWUS01 KWNH 182332
FFGMPD
NMZ000-AZZ000-190431-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0657
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
731 PM EDT Thu Jul 18 2024

Areas affected...portions of central and southeast AZ

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 182331Z - 190431Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms are progressing out of the
topography towards the lower elevations of southern AZ.  Hourly
rain totals to 2" are possible where cells merge or attempt to
train.

Discussion...Showers and thunderstorms continue to percolate near
the Mogollon Rim in central AZ and are growing in coverage across
southeast AZ as outflow boundaries from previous activity push
westward towards the lower elevations, guided by the light
easterly winds at 700 hPa.  Aloft, this region is under an upper
level high.  Precipitable water values in the mountains are in the
1-1.25" range while they are closer to 1.5" at lower elevations of
southern AZ.=20

The expectation is for this activity to keep pushing westward and
fade once they move into a region with persistent CIN across
southwest and south-central AZ -- likely maintained by warm 700
hPa temperatures -- and existing CIN should increase in magnitude
after sunset.  Until then, where cells merge and/or have short
bouts of training, hourly rain totals up to 2" are possible.=20=20=20

Roth

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!8sSJg5gSEzdAImgyEn81e08liHKPzA1r5UigyB8OCSN10d12n3t-9tQDH_IMCDfdVbFG=
5zMqWraFQ0Xg02QyD8M96Zg$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...FGZ...PSR...TWC...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...CBRFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   36151323 35361090 35801063 35971005 35110833=20
            34730810 32860850 31360843 31201003 31481168=20
            32551171 34271283 35391390=20

=3D =3D =3D
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