Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Jul 18 2024 22:49:12

AWUS01 KWNH 182249
FFGMPD
NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-190147-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0656
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
648 PM EDT Thu Jul 18 2024

Areas affected...central SC & southeast NC

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 182247Z - 190147Z

Summary...Thunderstorms are trying to align across portions of SC
and southeast NC.  Hourly rain totals to 3", with local amounts of
5", are possible over the next few hours.

Discussion...Thunderstorms are forming along a wavy mesoscale
boundary across the Carolinas, with new development across SC
beginning to align with cell motion, increasing the chances for
heavier rainfall/flash flooding in the short term.  Precipitable
water values are near or above 2", effective bulk shear of 25 kts
is trying to organize the activity into a band, and ML CAPE is
1500-2500 J/kg.=20

Across southeast NC, other thunderstorms could see mergers with
upstream activity closer to the synoptic cold front.  Given the
above, over the next few hours, hourly rain totals to 3" and local
amounts to 5" appear possible.  The expectation is for this
activity to become outflow dominant and arc/bow out at some point
after sunset.

Roth

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!9CfI41eyV984tJJ4ypciWpsWFQvwKadePxFbVy1UScWFrSbacK2rE48h49iNg_EU1lvw=
n2c1Yy-ID5JMDTO2BZPw2rw$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CAE...FFC...GSP...ILM...RAH...

ATTN...RFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   35157891 34597833 33877888 33468132 33508272=20
            33928233 34178129 34808074 35038012=20

=3D =3D =3D
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