Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Jul 18 2024 21:11:39

AWUS01 KWNH 182111
FFGMPD
LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-190308-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0655
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
510 PM EDT Thu Jul 18 2024

Areas affected...near the northern shared border of TX/LA

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 182108Z - 190308Z

Summary...Small pockets of heavy rainfall have occurred in the
vicinity of a deep layer cyclone in far eastern TX.  Hourly rain
totals to 3" and local amounts of 5" are possible in isolated to
widely scattered spots.

Discussion...Very efficient rainfall has been noted across western
portions of Desoto and northern portions of Caddo parish
associated with a deep layer low, whose surface center is between
Tyler and Lufkin TX and upper level centers across far northeast
TX and east of Nacogdoches TX.  Precipitable water values are
~2.3" which is helping to lead to the efficiency, along with ML
CAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg.  There have been occasional hints of
backbuilding in the convection before the recent pockets died or
shifted.  Effective bulk shear is under 25 kts, so organization
has been limited and convection has shown pulse-like character.

The 12z and 18z HREF hint that this limited but efficient
convective development should continue into the evening hours.=20
Hourly rain totals to 3" with local amounts of 5" are possible --
as was seen in southern Desoto parish -- on an isolated to widely
scattered basis.  Such rainfall would be most problematic if it
impacts urban areas.

Roth

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!8c3792OG4jynx1ZT3d919i8fR2LsdM8elDBd9MQdcclmXTfW81NS8neiCDmgTTHshFBg=
2JBGNOf2jGrosCFbdIHryuE$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   33199372 32949284 32419247 31689269 31399343=20
            31809465 32089496 32699500 33129450=20

=3D =3D =3D
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