Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Jul 18 2024 19:59:11

AWUS01 KWNH 181959
FFGMPD
AZZ000-UTZ000-NVZ000-CAZ000-190027-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0653
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
358 PM EDT Thu Jul 18 2024

Areas affected...in and near southern NV

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 181957Z - 190027Z

Summary...Thunderstorms with heavy rainfall in and near southern
NV have occasionally shown some convective organization.  Hourly
rain totals to 1.5" are possible over the next several hours due
to either slow motion, cell mergers, or cell training.

Discussion...Inflow at 700 hPa of ~15 kt up the Colorado River has
imported precipitable water values of ~1.1" into far southern NV.=20
CIN has eroded and thunderstorms are starting to broaden somewhat
in coverage in and near Las Vegas.  ML CAPE has risen into the
500-1000 J/kg range.  Effective bulk shear of 25 kts not far to
the northwest led to a brief appearance of SSE-NNW training with
convection, which has since faded.  Other thunderstorms in and
near southern NV aren't showing much movement.   A shortwave
moving through western NV appears to be the source of difluence
aloft.

ML CAPE could rise another 500-1000 J/kg as convective coverage
tries to increase.  The mesoscale guidance is showing its typical
struggle with convection in the Desert Southwest, but there is a
signal just to the east for heavy rainfall as late at 00z.  In the
meantime, short training bands are possible as instability
increases further this afternoon.  Hourly rain totals to 1.5"
should be possible in areas where thunderstorms show slow motion,
merge, or train.  This degree of heavy rainfall would be most
problematic in urban areas and dry washes/arroyos.

Roth

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!4EsYtzSJ4lfq3pmn68X3TRjkhJ-ccBjV9BjzH_lLvp1cOfW9J_DEkjI8pxq5j1SilMr-=
y7k69IPBEnSU1Cfh4oPxMwo$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SLC...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...CBRFC...CNRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   38051488 37951352 36941380 36181381 36061380=20
            35191380 35241487 35811578 36091600 37041613=20
            37861559=20

=3D =3D =3D
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