Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Jul 18 2024 19:52:36

ACUS01 KWNS 181952
SWODY1
SPC AC 181951

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0251 PM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024

Valid 182000Z - 191200Z

....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTION OF
NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA...

....SUMMARY...
The greatest concentration of damaging gusts this afternoon/early
evening should be over portions of North Carolina and extreme
southeastern Virginia.

....20Z Update...
Only minor adjustments to the Slight risk in central North Carolina
where a cluster of thunderstorms are moving off the Appalachians
this afternoon. Elsewhere, the outlook remains on track and is
unchanged.

...Wendt.. 07/18/2024

..PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1105 AM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024/

....VA to GA...
A seasonably warm/humid air mass is present today from GA into
southeast VA, with dewpoints in the 70s and afternoon high
temperatures likely in the lower 90s most places.  Afternoon MLCAPE
values of 1000-2000 J/kg will encourage thunderstorm development.
Forecast soundings show rather weak mid-level lapse rates, but steep
low-level lapse rates and ample PWAT for water-loaded downdrafts.
The southern fringe of stronger cyclonic westerly flow aloft across
this region will result in a few more organized clusters, capable of
locally damaging wind gusts.  Please refer to MCD #1676 for further
details.

....High Plains...
Thunderstorms will develop once again today off the higher terrain
of central CO/NM and spread southeastward through the
afternoon/evening.  Sufficient mid-level flow and steep lapse rates
will promote a risk of rotating storms capable of gusty winds and
hail, although CAM guidance varies on coverage/placement of storms.
Therefore will maintain only MRGL outlook at this time.

....Central MT...
A strong shortwave trough it tracking northeastward across northern
MT into southern MB.  Lift in advance of this system should aid in
the development scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms across
the Plains of central/eastern MT.  Full sunshine will steepen
low-level lapse rates beneath 30+ knots of westerly flow aloft.
High-based supercells and bowing structures are possible, with
damaging winds the main threat.  The main limiting factor for a more
organized severe event appears to be weak moisture/instability
(afternoon dewpoints in the mid 40s and CAPE generally below 500
J/kg).

$$

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