Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Jul 18 2024 18:56:09

AWUS01 KWNH 181856
FFGMPD
COZ000-NMZ000-190054-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0651
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
255 PM EDT Thu Jul 18 2024

Areas affected...portions of CO and NM

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 181854Z - 190054Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms are forming across the terrain
of CO and NM which are expected to drift somewhat eastward into
the High Plains with time.  Hourly rain totals to 2.5" with local
amounts to 4" are possible due to slow cell motion and cell
mergers.

Discussion...Showers and thunderstorms are developing under a
general upper level high as CIN erodes across the terrain of CO
and NM in the vicinity of a 700 hPa trough noted in area VAD wind
profiles.  Moisture values are high considering the elevation of
the region, with precipitable water values in the 0.7-1.3" range
due to upslope flow into south-central NM.  ML CAPE has risen into
the 500-1000 J/kg range.

Effective bulk shear regionally is near 25 kts, which could
organize convection.  There should be a tendency for thunderstorms
to migrate off the terrain into the instability pool building
across the High Plains more into the axis of the 700 hPa trough,
which is depicted by the mesoscale guidance.  Hourly rain totals
to 2.5" with local amounts to 4" are possible, which would be
problematic in areas of steep terrain, arroyos/dry washes, and
burn scars.  Slow cell motion and cell mergers are expected to be
the main cause for the heavier rain totals.

Roth

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!4vwa1-Rpe8YeTF4KyUDDWK9MaM8wwHIhKj5HZbUwcaQ4VsNyf03d1MWaDjESsZxsiVCF=
Qnw9XsdzKLnfEa0PDMMSoHE$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...BOU...EPZ...GJT...PUB...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...CBRFC...MBRFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   40190589 39880497 38960408 36380325 33030495=20
            32180554 32390618 32720625 35980631 37560807=20
            39060733=20

=3D =3D =3D
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