Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Jul 18 2024 18:22:38

AWUS01 KWNH 181822
FFGMPD
MSZ000-LAZ000-182251-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0649
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
221 PM EDT Thu Jul 18 2024

Areas affected...in and near southeast LA

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 181821Z - 182251Z

Summary...Thunderstorms should increase in coverage across the
area during the next several hours.  Hourly rain totals to 3" with
local amounts to 5" are possible.

Discussion...An MCV in the Piney Woods of eastern TX has helped
spur convection, with a short squall line moving across the Baton
Rouge area at this time.  Precipitable water values are just above
2" per GPS data.  Effective bulk shear near 25 kts is helping to
organize convection.  Thunderstorms appear efficient from a heavy
rain perspective at 850 hPa inflow is rather weak, a typical warm
core low environment.  Radar imagery suggests hourly rain totals
to 2" as of late.

The concern is that a combination of organized and disorganized
convection across the region could merge or train, amping up
rainfall totals.  Mesoscale guidance suggests a broadening of the
heavy rain signal over time, eventually overspreading the ML CAPE
pool of 2000-3000 J/kg.  Hourly totals to 3", with local amounts
to 5", should be possible in this enivornment.  This would be
especially problematic in urban environments.

Roth

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!8Cjnto70mJxNIIVUiU_aUxhsm9coyL17OnPhCyucC6ddTGBE-yKGBQHk60m60U__8M27=
qkH2mWkT5ViXUXNViRPMbJI$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LCH...LIX...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   31149129 31008972 30208922 29108907 28978990=20
            29089169 29869115=20

=3D =3D =3D
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