Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Thu Jul 18 2024 17:30:05 ACUS02 KWNS 181730 SWODY2 SPC AC 181728 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM FAR NORTHEAST COLORADO INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA... ....SUMMARY... Isolated strong to widely scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the northern/central High Plains into the northern/central Plains on Friday. The most organized storms are expected from far northeast Colorado into central Nebraska. ....Synopsis... An expansive upper ridge will remain across the West on Friday. A shortwave trough initially in eastern Montana will slide southeastward around the upper ridge into the central Plains by the afternoon. At the surface, a broad surface high within the Midwest and Ohio/Tennessee Valleys will begin to gradually weaken. Ahead of the shortwave trough, a modest lee low/trough will develop from near the Black Hills into the southern High Plains. Moisture return will occur along the western periphery of the surface ridge and support severe storm development in the northern/central High Plains and adjacent Plains to the east. ....Northern/Central Plains... Isolated strong to severe storms are most likely to develop within the lee trough and around/near the weak surface low that will move southward from western South Dakota into Nebraska/Kansas. Most areas will have somewhat limited low-level moisture, especially with northern and western extent. Nevertheless, southerly low-level flow along with moderate northwesterly flow aloft will support 35-45 kts of effective shear. Storms will be capable of severe wind gusts and isolated large hail. Greater storm coverage is expected ahead of the mid-level trough and surface low parts of western/central Nebraska. Storms will at least initially be cellular and have potential for large hail. Greater hail risk should be mitigated by rather large temperature-dewpoint spreads and expected outflow dominant storms. Severe wind gusts will likely be the primary threat, particularly if any clustering can occur. A weak low-level jet may support some storm maintenance into the evening, but this it is not certain given how modest the jet will be. ...Wendt.. 07/18/2024 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .