Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Thu Jul 18 2024 00:52:00 ACUS01 KWNS 180051 SWODY1 SPC AC 180050 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0750 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024 Valid 180100Z - 181200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ....SUMMARY... The threat for damaging winds will continue this evening across portions of the Ohio and Tennessee River Valleys into the Mid-Atlantic. More isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are anticipated across parts of the central High Plains. ....Mid-Atlantic into the southern Appalachians/Tennessee Valley... A line of thunderstorms continue to push east towards the Mid-Atlantic coast as of 00 UTC. Latest RAP mesoanalysis continues to show adequate buoyancy and deep-layer shear immediately downstream for storm maintenance for the next 1-2 hours, but increasing MLCIN with the onset of nocturnal cooling and undercutting outflows (noted in some regional radar imagery) will likely result in a gradual weakening trend through late evening as storms reach the coast. To the west across the southern Appalachians and TN Valley, shallow convection continues to percolate along a cold front as synoptic ascent associated with the primary upper low to the north glances the region. Although the air mass across TN into the southern Appalachians has been convectively overturned to some degree over the past several hours, latest CAM guidance continues to suggest convection along the front may increase in coverage and intensity after 01 UTC with an attendant threat for sporadic damaging winds. ....Central High Plains... A loosely organized cluster of thunderstorms ongoing across northeast CO may pose a severe wind and hail threat for the next few hours, but a gradual weakening trend is expected later tonight due to a propensity for undercutting outflows and as storms migrate southward into an air mass that has already been processed by prior convection. To the south across far southwest KS, a cluster of thunderstorms may continue to propagate to the south along a buoyancy axis and pose a wind threat, but poor MLCAPE and weak hodograph structure observed in the 00 UTC DDC sounding suggest the potential for a more organized severe threat is limited. ...Moore.. 07/18/2024 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .