Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Jul 18 2024 00:44:22

AWUS01 KWNH 180044
FFGMPD
NMZ000-180600-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0645
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
843 PM EDT Wed Jul 17 2024

Areas affected...New Mexico

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 180040Z - 180600Z

SUMMARY...The flash flood threat continues this evening in
portions of New Mexico where soils are overly saturated, along
complex terrain, and within or near burn scars. Portions of
eastern New Mexico may also be at risk for flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...GOES-16 and Doppler Radar depict a stormy scene
across New Mexico this evening. PWs have been steadily increasing
from east to west as persistent easterly 700mb flow continues to
direct 700mb moisture flux at the state. PWs according to the
latest RAP will increase to >1.0" in central NM, while eastern New
Mexico may approach 1.5" PW values within the next few hours. In
addition, there is still sufficient instability in the form of
1,000-1,500 J/kg of MUCAPE. Instability is highest near and north
of Roswell where dew points are closer to 60F. Eastern New Mexico
is also on the doorstep of the approaching cold front, which is
helping to set off more and more storms over the past hour. The
cold front combined with outflow boundaries emanating from ongoing
convection will continue to promote storms capable of producing
rainfall rates as high as 1.5"/hr in the most intense cells.

Farther west, the ongoing easterly 700mb flow will continue to
cause upslope enhancement along topographically-favored slopes of
the Southern Rockies. While instability is not as high as it is in
eastern New Mexico, the region features some notable burn scars
and complex terrain that is not as adept to handle such excessive
rainfall rates. 18Z HREF 1-hr LPMM shows convection may stick
around shortly after midnight. This is not only due to the
prolonged upslope flow, but also 25-30 kts of effective bulk shear
helping to sustain ongoing thunderstorm activity. Given these
factors, the flash flood threat will persist into this evening
before finally tapering shortly after midnight. Localized flash
flooding is possible with burn scars and complex terrain most at
risk.

Mullinax

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DZ3fjg!9QFfajmEtbk6JleoeomwlgFr-JGaMxQxL_5CKpEMCQZ07fJ8w_EWQUczsPHugMykNapl=
2-rZdJvnfgdGugCgA__PVLM$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   36470486 35790352 34720350 33810391 33240442=20
            33510589 33710663 34430731 35190729 35940631=20
=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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