Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Jul 17 2024 22:52:52

AWUS01 KWNH 172252
FFGMPD
KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-180400-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0644
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
652 PM EDT Wed Jul 17 2024

Areas affected...Central Plains

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 172250Z - 180400Z

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms capable of producing >1.5"/hr rainfall
rates will continue for much of the evening. Additional localized
flash flooding is possible.

DISCUSSION...Widespread thunderstorms have enveloped much of the
Central Plains thanks to a stalled frontal boundary draped in a
NW-SE fashion and a weak upper level disturbance emerging out of
western WY. RAP mesoanalysis shows as much as 1,000-1,500 J/kg of
MLCAPE and >1.0" PWs to the east of the Front Range. Surface winds
over southern NE and western KS remain out of the east, bringing
about additional moisture advection and an upslope component into
eastern CO, far western KS, western NE, and southeast WY. As
initial storms dissipate, colliding outflow boundaries will prompt
the development of new storms. Mean winds within the 850-300mb
layer are generally around 10 knots and out of the west, but the
ongoing convergence along the stalled front via low level easterly
flow will keep storms from being overly progressive. This will
allow for storms to produce excessive rainfall rates of
1.0-1.5"/hr (in some cases >1.5"/hr) for much of the evening.

Latest 18Z HREF shows low chances (10-30%) for 3-hr QPF exceeding
3-hr FFGs in eastern CO. Storms in western KS may also pose a
flash flood threat for a little while longer given the reservoir
of mid-level moisture and slower storm motions. As daytime heating
ends, storms should gradually decrease in coverage beyond 03Z. But
until then, potent thunderstorms will stick around this evening
and could cause additional flash flooding. Rugged, complex terrain
along the Front Range and low lying areas are most prone to flash
flooding.

Mullinax

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!5gBlU5rBI_CNPWY2bmgZSj2rCSU47qKphg5Ng4cchFpNTmn7_1GHT3YCxNUPE8ZZ9e0o=
0ilKi1uzgxiD7Av8HsgpCyE$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BOU...CYS...GLD...PUB...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...MBRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   42120487 42060331 40830276 39760194 38690164=20
            37860316 37930450 38430506 39080520 40010535=20
            40630576 41370594 41770600=20

=3D =3D =3D
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