Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1672
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Jul 17 2024 20:50:45

ACUS11 KWNS 172050
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 172049=20
KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-172245-

Mesoscale Discussion 1672
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0349 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

Areas affected...Extreme southeast WY into the NE
Panhandle...eastern CO and extreme western KS

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 172049Z - 172245Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Trends are being monitored for an increasing severe-wind
threat. Isolated hail remains possible.

DISCUSSION...At 2045 UTC, convective outflow was moving southward
near the common border of WY/NE/CO, southeast of Cheyenne, and some
recent tendency for increasing convection near the outflow has been
noted. In the short term, moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE of 1000-1500
J/kg) and marginally sufficient deep-layer shear could continue to
support isolated marginal supercells, with an attendant threat of
large hail and localized severe gusts.=20

There is some potential for this outflow to grow with time and
potentially consolidate with outflow from storms closer to the CO
Front Range. Should this occur, a somewhat greater severe-wind
threat could evolve late this afternoon into early evening, and
watch issuance would be possible in order to address this threat.
Otherwise, occasionally organized semi-discrete cells could continue
to pose a threat of isolated hail and severe gusts across parts of
eastern CO and adjacent portions of southeast WY and western NE/KS
through late afternoon.

...Dean/Hart.. 07/17/2024

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!918GIa7TDcm9HPWuIwEYXATuThGY_jRb6k913VgxLYVjlkmiXZDnnsxQOnxf0n_PFEz3KVfMO=
irQv13stPWzFojj03k$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS...

LAT...LON   38330376 39350429 40940482 41300481 41520466 41990439
            42200393 42400236 41020132 38130121 37790241 37790311
            38330376=20


=3D =3D =3D
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