Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Jul 17 2024 18:43:19

AWUS01 KWNH 171843
FFGMPD
COZ000-NMZ000-180030-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0640
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
242 PM EDT Wed Jul 17 2024

Areas affected...Northern NM...Southern CO

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 171840Z - 180030Z

SUMMARY...Slow moving showers and thunderstorms are forecast to
gradually increase in coverage across northern New Mexico and
south-central Colorado through the afternoon hours.  Isolated
instances of flash flooding will be possible through 630 pm local
time where storms become more anchored to the terrain, and also
across vulnerable burn scar areas.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES 16 visible satellite imagery has
shown an increase in convective development over the past couple
of hours, and this is also becoming evident in regional Doppler
radar.  CIRA layered PWs indicate increasing moisture flux around
the northern periphery of a 300-500mb upper ridge centered over
southwestern New Mexico, with overall storm motions towards the
southeast across the outlook area.  The latest SPC mesoanalysis
has PWs approaching 1 inch across eastern New Mexico, so the
storms that develop will be more efficient rainfall producers.
There is also a general easterly flow at the low levels, and thus
aiding lift across the terrain.

The latest CAM guidance suite is portraying the potential for some
sattered 2 inch rainfall totals with some of the strongest storms
that develop, with much of that falling within a 1 to 2 hour time
period.  The guidance has the best signal for this along and just
east of the Sangre De Cristo Range.  Parts of northern New Mexico
have already received copious rainfall over the past couple of
weeks, and thus more susceptible to flooding.=20

Hamrick

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!52LMiQlMtAUFY0uH4Bxs3CntOkQOSlCAKgc78fS6DtW7NZ7W4heCrJ17zXgIwPxqreSj=
23YCKGVdmM4U0XFbGEMeCDI$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...GJT...PUB...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...CBRFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   37940674 37410630 37100608 37090564 37220547=20
            37710526 37790477 37640414 37000349 35900351=20
            35020407 34530451 34310503 34200564 34370613=20
            34560641 34940658 35340665 35920686 36580709=20
            37010731 37390741 37850727=20

=3D =3D =3D
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