Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Jul 17 2024 05:19:07

AWUS01 KWNH 170519
FFGMPD
MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-171117-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0636
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
118 AM EDT Wed Jul 17 2024

Areas affected...northern Oklahoma, southern Kansas, far
southwestern Missouri, far northwestern Arkansas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 170517Z - 171117Z

Summary...Convection is expected to expand in coverage along a
front across the discussion area through 11Z.  Flash flooding is
likely in a few areas given expected slow storm motions and
abundant moisture/instability.

Discussion...An ongoing, mature MCS was located across
northwestern Oklahoma near Alva.  This complex was
forward-propagating to the east at around 30 knots.  Ahead of this
complex, more scattered activity was developing along and  south
of a front extending from west to east along the OK/KS border.=20
The storms were forming within an airmass characterized by weak
westerly wind fields aloft (around 10-15 knots), 1.9 inch PW
values, and 3000-3500 J/kg MLCAPE especially near the front.=20
These parameters are likely to support increasing rain rates
through the night with any sustained activity near the front.=20
MRMS indicated spots of 1-2.5 inch/hr rain rates (estimated)
beneath the deeper convection.

Over time, convection is expected to gradually develop and migrate
eastward as suggested by CAMs and observations.  Weak radar echoes
were already beginning to appear in Osage County, further
suggestive of an expansion in convective coverage overnight.=20
Continued 1-3 inch/hr rain rates are expected, which may exceed
hourly FFG thresholds especially near urban areas (i.e., Tulsa,
Oklahoma City, Wichita, etc.) and from north-central OK into
Kansas and southwestern Missouri where locally lower FFGs (around
2 inches/hr) exist.  Flash flooding is possible in this scenario -
especially in the event that clusters of persistent storms (with
rain rates lasting beyond an hour) materializes as depicted by
both the high-resolution Nam and HRRR.

Cook

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!5TiYBpejLiq9DY1QjnWyMKS5bLELXS56APn-pTKwddf0A4gS5Pw3FTZ9HTgO9jcv-SmW=
Pqs1BRGaj2YmpS5THZuttpg$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...ICT...OUN...SGF...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...MBRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   38019813 37759501 37079386 36169379 35569455=20
            35249698 35719840 36529908 37849941=20

=3D =3D =3D
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