Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Jul 17 2024 04:43:05

AWUS01 KWNH 170443
FFGMPD
KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-171042-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0635
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1242 AM EDT Wed Jul 17 2024

Areas affected...much of Kentucky, far southern Illinois, far
southeastern Missouri

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 170442Z - 171042Z

Summary...Deep convection is focused along a remnant
outflow/differential heating zone extending from near Carbondale,
IL to near Owensboro, KY.  Storms are slow-moving and 1-2.5
inch/hr rain rates are beginning to materialize.  Flash flooding
is likely.

Discussion...Over the past hour, convection has deepened rapidly
along a remnant outflow/differential heating zone across far
northern Kentucky and far southern Illinois.  Nearly 2000 J/kg
MLCAPE was present on the warm side of this boundary along with 2
inch PW values.  Furthermore, the boundary was located parallel to
very weak westerly steering flow aloft (at around 10-20 knots),
allowing for both slow storm motions and a focused corridor for
training cells.  Given the environment and favorable kinematics,
areas of 1-2.5 inch/hr rain rates (estimated per MRMS) have
materialized along much of the outflow, at times exceeding local
FFG thresholds that were generally in the 1.5-2 inch/hr range
across the area.

This regime is likely to persist and cause areas of flash flooding
for a few hours overnight.  Over time, storms may begin to
forward-propagate as small linear segments as cold pools mature
beneath the convection and upscale growth occurs.  In either
scenario, flash flooding appears likely given the slow storm
motions and abundantly moist environment.  This threat is likely
to persist through 1030Z and possibly beyond.

Cook

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!9e-6dIONsVsTX7difG-F1-U1Ewn5PULVPCf9YnUM-WwAwh9xa-JflzJMxg1-WCCenSit=
F2Z24hi1cQVTilXBcdJGY1o$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...JKL...LMK...LSX...PAH...RLX...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...NCRFC...OHRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   38578426 38338325 37758287 36908466 36748735=20
            36648919 36939083 38279069 38268935 38128744=20
            38348567=20

=3D =3D =3D
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