Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Jul 17 2024 04:23:22

AWUS01 KWNH 170423
FFGMPD
MOZ000-ARZ000-171022-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0634
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1222 AM EDT Wed Jul 17 2024

Areas affected...northern Arkansas, far southern Missouri

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 170422Z - 171022Z

Summary...A slow-moving cluster of storms continues to persist
across northern Arkansas near Clinton and Heber Springs.  Periods
of 1-2 inch/hr rain rates are likely to continue, and areas of 3-6
inch totals in 3 hours have also been estimated.  Flash flooding
is likely.

Discussion...Flash flood potential continues across the discussion
area.  Over the past 1-2 hours, vigorous thunderstorm development
has occurred beneath a remnant MCS from morning convection near
the Arkansas/Missouri border.  Additionally, cells on the western
periphery of the convective cluster are ingesting pre-convective
air characterized by 3000+ J/kg MLCAPE and 2 inch PW values.  This
environment is continuing to foster extremely heavy rainfall, with
radar estimates of 3-6 inches of rainfall in the past 3 hour per
MRMS.

Models and observations both hint at continued redevelopment of
the convective cluster especially on its western flank.  This will
ultimately result in a slow westward or southwestward movement of
the complex, with slow eastward movement of individual cells that
develop along the periphery of the expanding near-surface cold
pool beneath the storms.  Both the 00Z high-resolution NAM and
recent HRRR runs hint at this behavior.  With relatively high FFG
thresholds across the region (3 inch/hr, 4 inch/3-hr) it appears
that 1) sensitive/low-lying areas and/or 2) areas that experience
prolonged heavy rainfall (for longer than one hour) are most
likely to experience impacts.

Cook

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!_OHnLrtofmnBOv7zxIkPLbvtecr-7W2mPgpS6ZuBXg-8h7nYwst5G1rT8nI0gGzsafum=
zhhHLQo4eVpHGpWy5uIt9_s$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...PAH...SGF...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   37029260 36869096 35679107 35079273 35409402=20
            35879427 36799399=20

=3D =3D =3D
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